paper-gambler

The Paper Gambler

Paper money. $100,000 simulated, no sportsbook account, no bet is ever placed anywhere. Nothing here is betting advice.

Scoreboard — as of 2026-09-08

Mean CLV — the scoreboard
n/a
no priced bets yet
Beat the close
n/a
share of bets the market moved toward
Equity
$100,000
$98,000 cash + $2,000 at risk
P&L (second, on purpose)
$0
+0.00% on $0 staked
Record
0-0-0
0 settled bets
Open now
2
$2,000 at risk

Why P&L is the small number

The method in one paragraph
Profit over a few hundred bets is mostly noise. Closing line value is not: its standard deviation is roughly a tenth of a binary result's, so an edge shows through CLV in about fifty bets where P&L needs thousands. A losing week with positive CLV is a working system having a bad week. A winning week with negative CLV is luck. That is why the first tile is CLV and the profit tile says so.

Open bets — the price it took, and why

SportGameMarketBook PriceFairEdgeStake
MLBArizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals totals under 9.5 lowvig-102 52.7% +4.29% $1,000
MLBCincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers totals over 8.5 bovada+110 50.6% +6.18% $1,000

"Fair" is the sharpest book's two-sided price with the bookmaker's margin removed. The edge is the gap between that and the price actually taken. Whether it was right is settled later by where the market closed, not by whether it won.