Paper money. $100,000 simulated, no sportsbook account, no bet is ever placed anywhere. Nothing here is betting advice.
Pinnacle's two-sided price with the bookmaker's margin removed is the closest publicly available estimate of a true probability. Any softer book offering better than that is mispriced by definition. The book bets those, small, and measures itself against the closing line.
A bet exists only relative to a fair probability. No reference price, no bet — enforced in code, which is why the book placed nothing on its first live run.
The edge floor is 2%, because the reference book's own margin is under that and a smaller gap sits inside the noise. A 15% ceiling rejects prices that are almost always stale or misparsed.
A quarter of the Kelly stake, never more than 1% of equity on one bet. The cap binds more often than the fraction, deliberately: the danger is not a bad night, it is a wrong reference sized up.
The fair price comes from the sharpest book; the bet goes to whichever soft book offers the best number. A book is never both the reference and the counterparty.
An edge shows through CLV in roughly fifty bets and through profit only after thousands. Every report leads with CLV.
New bets stop at a 20% drawdown or a 5% daily loss. Settlement never stops. Clearing a halt is a command a person runs.
The risk policy ships provisional and says so on every page until its owner ratifies it.
The write-up is produced after settlement from deterministic statistics. Nothing about today's results changes today's betting.
An in-house model logs candidates and stakes nothing until it shows positive CLV in shadow and beats real closing lines in backtest. The first two attempts failed that gate and were not deployed.
New sports are priced and logged but never staked until they clear four gates, the last being positive shadow CLV.
No parlays, because vig compounds. No live betting, because prices move faster than a batch cycle reads them. No player props yet. No hedging or middling. And no real money: there are no sportsbook credentials anywhere in the system and no code path that could place a bet.